Case Study: Bitcoin Corrections in the 2024–2025 Bull Market
The 2024–2025 Bitcoin bull run followed a clear rhythm — strong impulsive rallies followed by healthy corrections.
Each correction aligned with technical exhaustion and often came alongside macro or geopolitical risk events that affected broader markets.
Let’s look at the three main phases and what they reveal about Bitcoin’s market structure.
Phase 1: August 2024 – From 73,740 to 49,486
After touching 73,740 in early 2024, Bitcoin corrected about 33% to 49,486 by August.
- Weekly RSI showed a clear lower high, indicating slowing momentum.
- The rally from late 2023 was nearly vertical with limited support zones.
- The correction ended around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which often acts as a balance zone during large moves.
- The trigger was renewed global trade tension and rising recession concerns that caused risk assets to pull back.
This phase built the base for the next leg of the bull market, with 49,486 becoming a new higher low.
Phase 2: April 2025 – From 109,228 to 74,524
After bottoming in 2024, Bitcoin rallied to 109,228 before retracing to 74,524 in April 2025.
- RSI once again made a lower high, signaling momentum exhaustion.
- The correction was slightly beyond the 50% retracement — common for mid-cycle resets.
- The structure remained bullish as price formed a higher low above the 2024 base.
- The pullback coincided with growing global trade war concerns, which led to broad risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto.
This acted as a healthy consolidation phase that helped reduce leverage and reset market positioning.
Phase 3: October–November 2025 – Current Structure
Bitcoin reached a new high near 126,186 in October 2025 and is now showing early signs of cooling.
- Weekly RSI has again formed a lower high, similar to earlier corrections.
- The 50% retracement of the 74,524–126,186 leg comes around 100,500.
- 100k is also a major psychological and liquidity zone.
- Interestingly, previous corrections found support near other round numbers like 50k and 75k — both key psychological levels.
- If this pattern continues, the region between 98k–100k could act as an important support area.
Price may even dip slightly below 100k to trigger weaker long liquidations before stabilizing.
This zone aligns with the long-term trendline from 2024, creating a strong confluence region to monitor.
A sustained hold above this zone would suggest structural strength, while a break below would indicate deeper correction risk.
Key Observations
- Each correction has shown RSI divergence and loss of momentum.
- Pullbacks typically retraced around 50% of the prior rally.
- Macro or geopolitical events acted as short-term triggers.
- Round-number zones (50k, 75k, 100k) have repeatedly worked as psychological and liquidity levels.
Summary Table
| Phase | High | Low | Drop | Trigger | Technical Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2024 | 73,740 | 49,486 | -33% | Trade tensions & recession fears | RSI divergence + 50% Retracement |
| Apr 2025 | 109,228 | 74,524 | -31% | Trade war & profit-taking | RSI lower high + 50% Retracement |
| Nov 2025 (ongoing) | 126,186 | ? | TBD | Momentum loss | RSI divergence + 100k confluence zone |
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 2024–2025 bull market has shown a consistent pattern — momentum exhaustion, 50% retracements, and reactions near psychological levels.
The area around 98k–100k now carries multiple layers of confluence including Fibonacci, round-number psychology, and long-term trendline support.
While market behavior remains uncertain, holding above this zone would align with how previous corrections stabilized during this cycle.
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